On November 4, the methanol market price index was 2,048.14, down 1.15 from the previous working day and 0.06% month-on-month decrease.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 1:
China CFR 294-298/ton, up 4/ton;
U.S. FOB 118-119 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton;
European FOB 402-403 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2455-2470 (-25), Zhejiang: 2510-2520 (-20), Anhui: 2400-2420 (0),
South China: Guangdong: 2445-2455 (0), Fujian: 2470-2520 (-15)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2250 (0), North Shandong: 2250-2260 (0), Linyi: 2290-2305 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2070-2170 (-10), Hebei: 2160-2210 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2190-2210 (0), Two Lakes: 2320-2480 (0)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2050-2130 (-80), northern Shaanxi: 1955-1960 (15), northern Inner Mongolia: 1940-1980 (-10), southern Inner Mongolia: 1950 (0), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2200-2360 (0), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2220-2480 (0)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the methanol market continued its low and volatile trend, with spot market prices adjusted within a narrow range. The auction and transaction atmosphere in some regions of China was still good. At present, the overall start of the China market has maintained a high position. The overall supply performance in the region is relatively abundant, and the inventory in the port market continues to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 1,940 - 1,980 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 1950 yuan/ton. The transaction atmosphere of some bidding companies in the venue today was good. Among them, Rongxin auctioned 8000 tons of methanol today, with the starting price of 1940 yuan/ton, and all transactions were completed at 1950 yuan/ton; Yulin Yankuang auctioned 6000 tons of methanol today, with the starting price of 1940 yuan/ton, and finally all transactions were completed at 1,955 - 1,960 yuan/ton; The quantity of methanol auctioned by Xinao was 6000 tons, with a starting price of 1940 yuan/ton, and all 1940- 1,945 yuan/ton were finally sold; Shaanxi Weihua sold 2500 tons of methanol in the auction today, with a transaction price of 2130 yuan/ton; Shaanxi Runzhong's offer was raised twice this week, and it is currently quoted as 2080 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal. Market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, with 2250 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2250- 2,260 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Methanol futures fluctuated at a low level, and some downstream players had average enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market. Just after completing a transaction, the market transaction atmosphere was general. Methanol futures fluctuated at a low level, and some downstream players had average enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market. Just after completing a transaction, the market transaction atmosphere was general. The market quotation in North China is arranged at a high level. Today, Hebei quoted 2,160 - 2,210 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the market wait-and-see attitude was more obvious. Downstream market replenishment remained just needed, and market prices fluctuated or relatively limited in the short term; Shanxi quoted 2,070 - 2,170 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 10 yuan/ton at the low-end. At present, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and manufacturers 'inventory levels are low, which supports the mentality of holding prices. However, downstream demand is limited, and operators maintain a just need to enter the market to purchase.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures are consolidating. Spot purchased on demand. Some paper goods sell at high prices unilaterally at low prices, with market arbitrageurs and exchange negotiations mainly. The basis is stable, and the exchange price difference has widened slightly. The overall transaction was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: Spot/11 upper: 2455-2470, basis 01-10;11 middle: 2470-2480, basis 01+1/+3; 11 lower: 2485-2490, basis 01+16/+18; 12 lower: 2515-2520, basis 01+43/+45.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the overall construction of China's market has maintained a high position, and the overall supply performance of the market is abundant. At present, the port area is in a state of accumulation. It is difficult to have a significant gap in the supply side in the short term. At present, most downstream operators still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the market, and the overall enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market is average. Coupled with the recent impact of factors such as winter and environmental protection policies, demand in some terminal downstream markets continues to be weak. At present, most players in the market hold a certain negative sentiment about the future outlook. It is expected that the methanol market price will continue to be weak in the short term. However, in the later period, we need to pay close attention to macro policies and crude oil and coal prices, the operation of on-site equipment and the follow-up of downstream demand.
