Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of individual soda ash in China has been reduced within a narrow range. As of now, the price of light soda ash in the northwest and north regions is between 1,300 - 1,400 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in East China is between 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,750 - 2,000 yuan/ton; today, some soda plants in Hubei have stopped for maintenance, and the start of construction has dropped within a narrow range; Although the end of the month is approaching, downstream demand has not fluctuated much, and the purchasing attitude is still cautious. At present, the soda ash market has not seen any obvious positive drivers, and the overall operation is still weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 27, was 1581 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1614 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.86% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1581 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1564 yuan/ton, with a total position of 988166 lots, a month-on-month period of-1248 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices rebounded sharply. On the one hand, they were driven by the overall market macro sentiment. On the other hand, soda ash itself faced the problems of downstream monthly replenishment demand and peak season expectations due to its low valuation. Coupled with the significant slowdown in the upstream stock accumulation during the week, some short risk aversion drove prices to rebound. However, there are no conditions for reversal from a fundamental perspective. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see whether the sustainability of market sentiment and whether expectations of improved demand in the future can be fulfilled.
market outlook
Subsequent alkali plant equipment recovery and maintenance coexist, and supply will be adjusted; while the profitability of downstream companies has not improved and market sentiment has not improved. It is expected that the soda ash market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.
