Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of soda ash in China has declined at a low level. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is between 1,750 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in East China is between 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,750 - 2,000 yuan/ton; early maintenance enterprises have not yet recovered.soda plantdeviceRunning within narrow range; Today, the prices of new orders of some companies have been lowered again, and some companies have temporarily suspended quotations and implemented a single discussion; market prices have continued to fall, downstream purchasing sentiment has been poor, shipment pressure on soda ash companies has further increased, and the overall market operation has been weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2501, the main contract for soda ash, on August 26, was 1550 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1579 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% within the day. The intraday high was 1583 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1529 yuan/ton, with a total position of 989414 lots, a month-on-month +15794 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices were mainly bottomed out and rebounded, and quickly rose in late trading due to the risk aversion of short orders. Affected by the clear guidance of the Federal Reserve Chairman's statement at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday that he would start a cycle of interest rate cuts, coupled with the arrival of China's traditional peak season, the market has certain demand and expectations for a month-on-month improvement, and the overall commodity market has performed strongly. However, the fundamentals of soda ash itself have not improved, and its financial attributes are relatively limited, and its actual performance is weaker than other related varieties. However, last weekend, the accumulation of stocks from soda plants slowed down significantly. At the end of the month, there was a certain demand for replenishment of stocks at the downstream. Coupled with the support of macro sentiment, it is not appropriate to excessively bearish and wait and see the strength of this round of rebound in the short term.
market outlook
Some soda plants plan to carry out equipment maintenance tomorrow, and the supply will be reduced; while downstream demand will not fluctuate much, and the purchasing attitude will remain cautious. It is expected that the soda ash market will continue to maintain a weak operating trend in the short term.
