Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the domestic soda ash market price has been collectively lowered, ranging from 50 to 200 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,700 - 1,800 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is between 2,050 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton; Recently, the start of soda ash companies is still high, but there is still a narrow decrease due to the start of some new maintenance plans. Demand in the downstream market continues to be poor, companies are cautious in purchasing, some companies have increased their inventories, market prices are stable and weakening, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be light, procurement demand is limited, and the soda ash market remains weak.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on July 1, was 2098 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2126 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56% within the day. The intraday high was 2157 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2082 yuan/ton, with a total position of 713100 lots, a month-on-month +2712 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices continue to operate in a strong trend. The weakness of soda ash's own fundamental data continues, and spot prices are still being lowered. However, due to the new maintenance plan in July and the recent recurrence of supply disturbances from major factories, market worries have once again simmered. In the short term, it is necessary to continue to observe how the supply disturbance problem evolves and its impact on the purchasing mentality of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, there are still certain expectations for policy expectations before the important meeting in July, and there may still be some support for soda ash prices before the above uncertain events cannot be falsified. However, whether we can open up upward space still needs to observe the direction of the actual supply and demand relationship.
market outlook
The current soda market is still weak, but the recurrence of supply disturbance problems may still lead to positive feedback in the spot market, and the persistence of market sentiment can be observed in the short term.
