Methanol: Futures market range fluctuates and spot prices are adjusted within a narrow range

On May 24, the methanol market price index was 2284.96, down 5.46 from yesterday, down 0.24% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 23:

China's CFR is US $300,310 / ton, down US $6 / ton.
Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, up 5 cents per gallon
Southeast Asian CFR 365.5-US $366.5 / ton, down US $2 / tonne

European FOB 300-301 euros / ton, down 0.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2350 (0), North Route: 2170 (- 20), Lunan: 2500 (0), Henan: 2420-2430 (20), Shanxi: 2350-2430 (0), Port: 2710-2760 (5)

Freight:

North Line-230-280 (0ax 0), North Line-South Shandong 280-310 (0max 0), South Line-North Shandong 270-300 (- 10 pm 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol futures offer narrow adjustment, recent inventory pressure of manufacturers in some regions of China has increased, coupled with the terminal downstream market demand follow-up is limited, the contradiction between supply and demand highlights, the Chinese market price has fallen, coupled with the futures market shock operation, the wait-and-see mood is obvious. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas was lowered along with it, and the quotation on the southern line revolved around 2180 yuan / ton, which maintained yesterday, while the quotation on the northern line revolved around 2170 yuan / ton, the lower end was cut by 20 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuated, the market mentality was more cautious, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream was limited, and the market transaction atmosphere was poor. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have dropped, with 2500 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2470-2500 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Some downstream operators hold certain resistance to the current high prices, and the trading atmosphere in the market is poor. North China market quotation temporarily stable operation, Hebei quotation 2410-2430 yuan / ton today, maintain yesterday, the downstream market demand performance is general, the overall market transaction atmosphere is general; Shanxi quotation today 2350-2430 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is light, some downstream product industry starts to decline, the terminal downstream demand is difficult to have obvious improvement in the short term, some operators hold down the price operation.

Port market: methanol futures range fluctuated today. Spot rigid demand negotiation, moderate price transaction. In the morning, the shipments under the month are active, the basis is weaker, the long-term fluctuation is small, and the price difference between months is narrowed. There was a slight stalemate in the afternoon, and the basis was slightly weaker. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / small order: 2740-2760, base difference 09x130pm 145x: 2710-2735, base difference 09x105pm 120x 60.00-2680, base difference 090060pm 70x 6, deal below: 2710-2735 : 2640-2670, base difference 09: 45, base difference 09: 45, base difference: 09: 35. Deal: 2630-2655, basis difference 09: 35.

Future forecast: recent equipment maintenance and restart in the Chinese market, the overall supply performance in the Chinese market is still abundant, and at present, some olefin units have been stopped, and the demand side of methanol support continues to decrease, from the traditional downstream market point of view, the downstream industry still gives priority to the rigid demand for methanol, and with the recent decline of the focus of methanol market, the pessimism of operators in the market is gradually rising, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is difficult to improve. At present, with the continuous decline in prices, the pessimism of the operators in the market is obvious, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is poor. Under the shipping pressure, some manufacturers do not rule out the possibility of giving a profit to the goods. It is expected that the methanol market price may continue to be weak next week, but in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.