Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market maintains an upward trend. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 2,150 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,250 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,100 - 2,200 yuan/ton; Recently, the shipment situation of soda ash companies has maintained good, and the price of new soda ash orders has increased slightly; At present, most soda ash companies have closed orders and not quoted prices for the time being. In the early stage, some maintenance companies have resumed production, and the market supply has gradually increased. After the soda ash price was raised, the market transaction atmosphere was still acceptable, but downstream demand was also relatively divided. The wait-and-see attitude of large factories increased, and soda ash prices fluctuated upward.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on April 23, was 2155 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2111 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.45% within the day. The highest intraday session was 2156 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2084 yuan/ton, with a total position of 778706 lots, a month-on-month period of-15670 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fell slightly, with funds leaving the market to cash in mainly the proceeds. Fundamentally, recent supply-side overhauls have continued to be repeated, the dynamic supply-demand relationship remains tight, and subsequent photovoltaic growth expectations are strong. Until the overall supply reduction and demand increase expectations cannot be falsified, soda ash prices may remain strong. However, companies with relatively safe raw material inventories in the middle and lower reaches must be resistant to wait-and-see attitudes towards high-priced raw materials. The market's further resonance is limited to a certain extent. In the short term, we need to guard against the correction of the overall macro environment and negative feedback that there may be selling pressure in the middle and upper reaches of the market.
market outlook
The price of soda ash is low, the sentiment of downstream companies to stock up has increased, the number of orders to be issued by soda factories has increased, and manufacturers have more inventory. Some soda factories have more orders, and the supply of goods is tight. Companies have closed orders and will not quote for the time being. It is expected that soda ash prices will rise within a narrow range.
