Methanol: The Chinese market is stable and small, the trading atmosphere in the market is light

On February 4, the methanol market price index was 2,268.61, an increase of 1.1 from the previous working day and an increase of 0.05% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on February 2:

China CFR 290-296 USD/ton, flat;
US FOB 95-96 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 347.5-348.5 USD/ton, flat;

European FOB 266.5-267.5 euros/ton, up 2.5 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 2230-2250 (0), North Line:1980-2010 (0), Southern Shandong:2400-2410 (0), Henan:2220-2240 (-20), Shanxi: 2200-2300 (0), Port:2580-2590 (0)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 380-440 (0/-20), South Line-Northern Shandong 380-480 (20/-10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 210-270 (0/0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0/0)

Spot market: Today, the market has no futures market guidance, and the Chinese market quotes have adjusted within a narrow range. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most downstream markets have basically left the market on holidays, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is light. Specifically speaking, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. The price for the southern line is around 2030 yuan/ton, and the price for the northern line is around 1,980 -2010 yuan/ton. At present, stocking in the downstream market has basically ended, and the transaction volume of new orders before the holiday is not high. More preliminary orders are mainly carried out, and some manufacturers in the field still have a certain demand for warehouse storage, so they continue to make small profits and shipments. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, has been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2,400 - 2,410 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, and maintained at 2,470 - 2,500 yuan/ton in northern Shandong on the previous working day. The stocking of goods in the downstream market has basically been completed, and terminal factories have been suspended for holidays. The demand in the terminal market is average, with the focus on just demand. The market quotation in North China has been adjusted within a narrow range. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,350 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Demand is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Most transactions in the region have maintained their current status. The price in Shanxi has been adjusted within a narrow range, and today's price has stabilized to 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast: Recently, some parking and load reduction devices in the northwest region have gradually returned to normal operation, and some air head devices in Sichuan are being ignited and restarted. There are increased expectations in the market in the short term. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream and terminal operators have left the market one after another. The market transaction atmosphere is light. Currently, most orders are mainly executed on pre-contract orders. The atmosphere for new orders on the market is limited. Moreover, there is no futures guidance on the market today, so operators are not enthusiastic about entering the market to make transactions. The situation of market prices and no market is relatively obvious. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. However, in the later period, we need to pay close attention to macro and coal prices, on-site equipment operation and downstream pre-holiday stocking.