1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
This week, China's soda ash market is mixed. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 2,200 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,350 - 2,650 yuan/ton. This week, some enterprises in the northwest region and other countries reduced their production of equipment, and the market started during the week. There was a slight decline; as manufacturers successively delivered early orders, manufacturers 'inventories showed a downward trend, and both light and heavy soda inventories fell; This week, the spot price of soda ash was mixed, with low prices picking up, high prices falling, and the price difference between high and low has narrowed. At present, most soda ash companies have little inventory pressure, downstream demand is relatively stable, and some companies have additional needs for stocking. However, the holiday is approaching, logistics and transportation are gradually decreasing, and the market transaction volume will gradually decrease. soda ash prices are weak and stable.
Forecast for next week: Enterprises that have reduced production in the early stage will gradually resume production, and the market has no maintenance plan in the short term, and market starts will gradually resume in the later stage; downstream replenishment needs before the festival will gradually end, and some downstream enterprises may gradually stop work in the later stage, and logistics will also be limited. It is expected that soda ash prices will remain stable in the short term.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
|
areas |
specifications |
on January 18 |
January 25 |
rise and fall |
previous month |
|
Northeast China |
light soda ash |
2525 |
2525 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2600 |
2600 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
|
in North China |
light soda ash |
2425 |
2350 |
-75 |
-3.09% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2650 |
2450 |
-200 |
-7.55% |
|
|
East China |
light soda ash |
2525 |
2400 |
-125 |
-4.95% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2600 |
2550 |
-50 |
-1.92% |
|
|
central China |
light soda ash |
2375 |
2375 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2500 |
2500 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
|
South China |
light soda ash |
2450 |
2450 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2550 |
2550 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
|
southwestern region |
light soda ash |
2350 |
2375 |
25 |
1.06% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2475 |
2475 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
|
northwestern region |
light soda ash |
1950 |
1975 |
25 |
1.28% |
|
heavy sodium carbonate |
2075 |
2075 |
0 |
0.00% |
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of January 25 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 882 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 590.5 yuan/ton, down 129.5 yuan/ton from the previous week.
|
production process |
on January 18 |
January 25 |
Weekly ups and downs |
rise and fall |
|
combined alkali method |
988 |
882 |
-106 |
-10.73% |
|
ammonia-soda process |
720 |
590.5 |
-129.5 |
-17.99% |
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
This week, the soda ash industry started at 87.20%, down 2.57% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 680,000 tons.
|
Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on January 25, 2024 |
|||
|
process |
enterprise name |
production capacity |
device condition |
|
combined alkali method |
Fujian Yaolong |
40 |
Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined |
|
Huainan Debang |
60 |
On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined. |
|
|
Lengshuijiang Alkali Industry |
18 |
The company's equipment maintenance will be held on January 17, with an estimated time of 4 days |
|
|
chlor-alkali process |
Qinghai Fantou |
140 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
|
Kunlun Jianye |
150 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
|
|
Nanfang Jianye |
60 |
The company's equipment maintenance will be held on January 18, with an estimated time of 10 days |
|
|
Shandong haihua |
300 |
The company's equipment will be repaired from January 24, and the estimated maintenance time is 7 days |
|
|
Shandong Haitian |
150 |
The company's equipment will be repaired from January 23, and the estimated maintenance time is 4 days |
|
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 416,000 tons, compared with 455,000 tons last week, a month-on-month decrease of 39,000 tons, or 9.38%.
