Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell back. Chinese prices were mixed

On January 17, the methanol market price index was 2255.4, down 3.44 from yesterday and 0.15 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on January 16:

China CFR 284-290 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 90-91 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 349.5-350.5 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 269.25-270.25 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2160-2200 (0), North Route: 2050-2100 (0), Lunan: 2340-2400 (- 40), Henan: 2270-2295 (- 10), Shanxi: 2200-2270 (0), Port: 24052420 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (20amp 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-300 (10max 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 140-200 (10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol in the Chinese market is adjusted narrowly, the futures market declines slightly, Hebei and Shanxi are affected by snowfall, the supply of negotiable goods in the market is limited, and the market price has been raised under the support of reduced supply in the region. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas does not change much. The quotation on the south line is around 2080 yuan / ton, and the price on the north line is around 2050-2100 yuan / ton. Affected by the snowfall in Henan and Shanxi, part of the downstream prepares goods ahead of the festival, and the market trading atmosphere is good. The overall shipment of manufacturers is smooth, and enterprise inventory is at a low level. The market price in Shandong, the main consumption area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2340-2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2410-2450 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Affected by the snowfall, the transportation of logistics goods has been affected, and the freight price has risen, and the downstream has actively replenished the goods. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2300-2350 yuan / ton today. The recent snowfall in some areas has led to an increase in freight charges. The price of goods flowing into the periphery of Hebei is relatively high. Local manufacturers mostly follow the market, and the price is on the strong side. Shanxi region quotation narrow adjustment, today's quotation 2200-2270 yuan / ton, most manufacturers inventory pressure, more keep the price mentality.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. Spot exchange for delivery, rigid demand replenishment. The paper goods sell order is limited, the unilateral purchase meets the low inquiry, the arbitrage receives the goods slightly to follow up, the basis is strong; the afternoon trading decreases, the base difference strengthens within the month, the long-term stabilization, the transaction is general. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 1: 2405-2420, base difference 05x70Universe 80position 1 transaction: 2400-2415, base difference 05x65pm 73x 2deal: 2395-2410, base difference 0560max 70,000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,65,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,

Future forecast: recently, the market in some parts of China is affected by the snowfall weather, the market transportation is limited, the freight price in some areas has been raised, the circulation of goods in the region is limited, and there is the operation of preparing goods in advance downstream due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday. under the support of little supply pressure, the market price has increased, but at present, the load of Jiutai plant is increasing, and the southwest airhead device is restarted one after another in the later stage. The good support on the supply side is limited, and at present, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, some downstream shutdowns and methanol plants restart and resume production one after another, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market may gradually increase, and the price fluctuation of methanol market in the short term is expected to be limited. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.