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Soda ash supply increases, market weakness declines (1.4 Weekly Review of Soda Ash)

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January 5, 2024, 5:25 PM

1. Analysis of China's soda ash market

China's soda ash market prices have continued to decline this week. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China this week is 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. The decline in heavy soda is higher than the decline in light soda; With the resumption of production in the early stage of maintenance and the commissioning of new equipment, the soda ash market started to increase this week; after the holiday, companies have offered prices one after another, and the price of soda ash is mainly downward, and the market is affected by buying increases but not buying decreases, so companies are also more cautious in purchasing; At present, some companies still have to place orders, and the pressure on manufacturers 'inventory is not large for the time being, but there is some pressure on the market to receive orders, and the price of new orders is stable and declining.

 

Forecast for next week: The supply of soda ash in the market is expected to increase, and growth is expected in the later period; downstream demand and procurement are general, the spot price of soda ash continues to fall, corporate purchasing sentiment is cautious, and it is difficult to have a good support point in the short term. soda ash prices are expected to weaken and decline.

 

2.  Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

areas

specifications

December 28

January 4

rise and fall

previous month

Northeast China

light soda ash

2925

2750

-175

-5.98%

heavy sodium carbonate

3075

2825

-250

-8.13%

in North China

light soda ash

2850

2650

-200

-7.02%

heavy sodium carbonate

3025

2775

-250

-8.26%

East China

light soda ash

2775

2700

-75

-2.70%

heavy sodium carbonate

2850

2800

-50

-1.75%

central China

light soda ash

2725

2650

-75

-2.75%

heavy sodium carbonate

2825

2725

-100

-3.54%

South China

light soda ash

2975

2925

-50

-1.68%

heavy sodium carbonate

3125

3000

-125

-4.00%

southwestern region

light soda ash

2875

2825

-50

-1.74%

heavy sodium carbonate

3050

2850

-200

-6.56%

northwestern region

light soda ash

2675

2550

-125

-4.67%

heavy sodium carbonate

2750

2600

-150

-5.45%

 

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of January 4 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 1366 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 870 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton from the previous week.

production process

December 28

January 4

Weekly ups and downs

rise and fall

combined alkali method

1414

1366

-48

-3.39%

ammonia-soda process

1085

870

-215

-19.82%

  

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

This week, the soda ash industry started at 85.30%, an increase of 2.16% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 666,000 tons.

Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on January 4, 2024

process

enterprise name

production capacity

device condition

combined alkali method

Fujian Yaolong

40

Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined

Huainan Debang

60

On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined.

Jinshan, Henan

390

Enterprise installation starts at around 90%

chlor-alkali process

Qinghai Fantou

140

On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined

Kunlun Jianye

150

On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined

 

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 370,500 tons, compared with 345,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 25,500 tons, an increase of 6.88%.