Methanol: The methanol season continues to plummet, and the pessimism of the industry remains unchanged

On May 22nd, the methanol market price index was 2207.79, down 11.4% from the previous working day, and 0.51% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 19:

China's CFR ranges from US $260 to US $269 per ton, down by US $8 per ton.

European FOB 271-273 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 83-86 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia ranged from US $329 to US $331 per ton, down US $6 per ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2230 (0), South: 2060-2080 (0), North: 2080-2120 (0), Lunan: 2200 (- 80), Henan: 2160-2180 (- 40), Shanxi: 2170-2190 (0), Port: 21502190 (- 110)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 140-210 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 210-260 (10ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-170 (0ax 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol futures market fell synchronously, and the price quoted in the Chinese market fell by the largest 110 yuan per ton. The futures market continues to fall, approaching the falling limit, the basis is strong, rigid demand procurement during the month, the transaction atmosphere is general; the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market still exists, the local market declines, and the trading atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable. Today, the quotation on the southern route is 2060-2080 yuan per ton, while the quotation on the northern line revolves around it. 2080-2120 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, currently affected by the continuous decline in the futures market, the buying bearish mentality is obvious, the operators wait and see mainly at the beginning of the week, some enterprises have not yet issued a new price, and in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. The market quotation in Guanzhong area is stable, today's quotation is around 2200-2230 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the transaction is general. Shaanxi Changqing methanol is quoted this week: 2100 yuan / ton for large and 2210 yuan / ton for small one. at present, the methanol plant of 600000 tons is running normally. The price of the consumer market has fallen, and today's quotation in Lunan revolves around 2200 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton at the low end, 2230-2250 yuan / ton at the northern Shandong price, and 20 yuan / ton at the low end. At present, there are few talks on the floor, and most of the downstream wait and see. The market price in North China is partially reduced, Hebei quotation is around 2230-2280 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, there is no new price reference in the market, and factories wait and see mainly; the quotation in Shanxi region revolves around. 2170-2190 yuan / ton to maintain the previous working day. Market prices in southwest China remained stable, with quotations from Yunnan and Guizhou centering around 2250-2320 yuan / ton and Sichuan-Chongqing 2230-2300 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day. At present, the cautious mood of the operators in the market remains, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fell weakly today. Within the month, rigid demand procurement, long-term unilateral delivery is active, the basis is strong. The price difference has widened in recent months, and the delivery of goods has increased. Overall transaction volume. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2165-2190, base difference 09: 100 transaction 5: 2150-2190, base difference 09: 80, margin 85: 6, basis: 2115-2165, basis: 09: 70, transaction: 2115-2165, basis: 09: 50, margin: 55: 7 : 2115-2155, the base difference is 095.57.070.550.070.60.

Forecast in the future: with the recent rise in temperature, the terminal power consumption is gradually released, and the daily coal consumption has increased, but the supply is still sufficient, the coal price as a whole tends to be stable, and the support for the cost end of methanol is temporarily stable. According to the supply and demand of methanol itself, the overall market supply exceeds demand, the supply is still abundant, the traditional downstream is gradually facing the impact of off-season, recent construction has been explored, the weak demand situation is difficult to change, and the trading atmosphere in the Chinese market is general. At present, the supply and demand structure of methanol market continues to be weak, and there is no obvious drive in the market for the time being. the operators in the market are lack of confidence in the future, and it is expected that the spot price of methanol will continue to be weak in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the price of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.