Methanol: Long and short game Methanol is mixed

On May 16, the methanol market price index was 2230.23, down 7.91 from yesterday, or 0.35% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 15:

China CFR 265USD-275USD / t, Ping

European FOB 273-275 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 86 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $335-337 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2240 (- 40), South: 2100 (0), North: 2080-2180 (0), Lunan: 2320 (0), Henan: 2230-2250 (25), Shanxi: 2150-2180 (- 30), Port: 23152335 (35)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 140-230 (- 10max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 200-260 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-150 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-170 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are mixed, and the price fluctuation in China is 10-35 yuan / ton. The methanol futures market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the port spot is still dominated by rigid demand for replenishment, and it is OK to buy gas in the middle of the month; the supply in some parts of the Chinese market has shrunk slightly, pushing prices to continue to rise slightly, and the transaction atmosphere is OK, but the demand performance in the downstream market is not good. Some operators are lack of confidence in the future, and under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, the market transaction atmosphere is different. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas fell partially, with today's quotation of 2100 yuan per ton on the south line and around the price on the north line. 2080-2120 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, some enterprises in some areas of the field have lowered their quotations for shipment, but traders and downstream are more wait-and-see, the transaction situation is general, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation narrowly reduced, today's quotation around 2200-2230 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, low-end stability, general trading atmosphere. The price of the consumer market fell in a narrow range, and today's quotation in Lunan revolves around 2280 yuan / ton, the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern Shandong price is 2270-2280 yuan / ton, the low end is 50 yuan / ton, the low end is stable. At present, the negotiation mood in the field is weak, and the downstream is mainly wait-and-see. Today's market bidding price revolves around 2280-2290 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical tender price 2290 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical 2280 yuan / ton, Lihuayi 2280 yuan / ton. The market price in North China has been partially lowered, and Hebei quotation revolves around 2250-2300 yuan / ton, maintaining that yesterday, manufacturers' shipments were general, and downstream rigid demand entered the market; Shanxi quoted price around 2150-2180 yuan / ton, and the low end was reduced by 30 yuan / ton. the production of some devices in the field is limited, and the trading atmosphere is OK. The market price in southwest China has been partially reduced, with Yungui quotation around 2300-2400 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's 2230-2300 yuan / ton in Sichuan and Chongqing, with a low-end reduction. 30 yuan / ton, at present, the demand in the field has not improved significantly, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Month arbitrage shipments mainly, low buying gas warms up, rebound follow-up is limited; June July a small number of unilateral high shipments, multi-contract negotiations, opportunity to close the deal, the basis stabilized slightly weaker, the deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot order: 2320-2345, base difference 09: 80, margin: 90, transaction 5: 2310-2330, base difference: 09, 70, 75, transaction price: 2285-2305, basis difference: 09, 45, 53, 6 : 2265-2285, basis difference 09: 30, 07: 40, 06: 20. Deal: 2265-2290, basis difference 09: 30, 07: 40, 06: 20.

In the future, it is predicted that crude oil prices have rebounded recently, coal prices have stabilized and weak, and cost support is limited. Henan Zhongyuan Dahua 500000 ton methanol plant has been postponed to restart, some units in Shanxi have been reduced, local supply has been slightly tightened and the supply margin has been slightly improved, but a plant in Xinjiang may be restarted, China's supply may continue to be sufficient, and downstream products have entered the off-season of traditional consumption, coupled with no significant improvement in profits. The downstream demand is slightly weak, the contradiction between supply and demand has not been significantly improved, and the mentality of the workers in the field is different. In the port market, the futures market fluctuates in a narrow range, the basis fluctuation is limited, the spot rigid demand is mainly bought, and it is OK to buy gas in the middle of the month. At present, the performance of the methanol market is still weak, the supply in the Chinese market exceeds demand, and coal prices do not rule out the possibility of further decline, the cautious mood of operators in the field still exists, the spot price of methanol is weak in the short term, and in the medium to long term, there is no significant change in methanol supply and demand, or continue to be weak, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to crude oil, coal prices and the operation of on-site units.