On May 15th, the methanol market price index was 2238.14, down 19.93 from the previous working day, and 0.88% lower than the previous working day.
Outer disk dynamics:
Methanol closed on May 12:
China's CFR ranges from US $265,275 / ton, down US $5 / ton.
European FOB 272.75-274.75 euros / ton, down 0.25 euros / ton
Us FOB 88-91 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 335-337 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton.
Summary of today's prices:
Guanzhong: 2230-2240 (- 40), South: 2100 (0), North: 2080-2180 (0), Lunan: 2320 (0), Henan: 2205-2230 (- 5), Shanxi: 2180-2200 (0), Port: 22802320 (- 10)
Freight:
North Route-Northern Shandong 150-230 (30ax 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 200-260 (20ax 20), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-150 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-170 (0max 0)
Device changes this week:
The methanol plant from 100000 ton coke oven gas in Shenhua Bayannur, Inner Mongolia was stopped for maintenance on April 26th and is expected to be overhauled for one month.
The 100000 ton coal-to-methanol plant of Jiuding Chemical Industry in Inner Mongolia was overhauled around April 20 and is expected to restart on May 15.
The 300000-ton coal-to-methanol plant in northwest Inner Mongolia is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on May 23rd, which is expected to take about 20 days.
The 60 + 600000 ton coal-to-methanol plant in a main factory in Xinjiang was shut down on May 9, and the specific recovery time has yet to be determined.
The methanol plant with an annual capacity of 400000 tons in Weihua, Shaanxi Province has recently been stopped and overhauled as scheduled, which is expected to take about 20 days.
Ningxia Baofeng Phase I maintenance; Ningxia Baofeng Phase III 2.4 million ton coal-to-methanol distillation unit is expected to stop for 10-15 days
The 600000 ton methanol plant in Huating, Gansu has been shut down and is scheduled to be overhauled for 25 days.
The second Plant of Shandong Union Coal-to-methanol Plant stopped for maintenance on May 1, and planned for maintenance for 20 days.
The 600000-ton coal-to-methanol plant of Mingquan Group (formerly Mingshui, Shandong) stopped on May 6th and is expected to be overhauled for 15 days.
Shanxi Jinfeng Wenxi 50 000 ton coal combined alcohol plant was shut down on May 10, and the expected maintenance time is expected to be 7-10 days.
Shanxi coking methanol 20 + 200000 tons methanol plant load reduction production.
Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak and difficult to change, and the price quoted in China has dropped by 5-100 yuan / ton. Methanol futures market low shock, basis stabilized, port spot demand buying; the overall supply side of the Chinese market tends to be stable, local supply reduced, but there is no obvious volume on the demand side, the market mentality is different, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas fell partially, with today's quotation of 2100 yuan per ton on the south line and around the price on the north line. 2080-2180 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, the mentality of purchasing in the field is weak, the overall shipment of enterprises in the region is general, some enterprises have not issued a new price at the beginning of the week, traders and downstream are more cautious in operation, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of methanol plant in the field. The market quotation in Guanzhong area is reduced narrowly, today's quotation revolves around 2230-2240 yuan / ton, the low end is reduced by 40 yuan / ton, and the trading atmosphere is general. Shaanxi Changqing methanol this week quoted price: 2000 tons quoted 2230 yuan / ton, 2000 tons quoted 2240 yuan / ton, 600000 tons methanol plant running normally. The price of the consumer market fell in a narrow range, and today's quotation in Lunan revolves around 2280 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton at the low end, 2270-2280 yuan / ton at the northern Shandong price, and 50 yuan / ton at the low end. At present, there is no obvious negotiation in the field, and more wait-and-see downstream. The market price in North China is stable, Hebei around 2250-2300 yuan / ton, Shanxi around 2180-2200 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current trading atmosphere is light, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Market prices in southwest China have remained stable as a whole, with quotations of 2300-2400 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2260-2310 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, maintaining the previous working day. At present, it is difficult to boost demand in the market, the confidence of the industry in the future is not good, and the transaction atmosphere is weak.
Port market: methanol futures low volatility. Spot part of the rigid demand. Paper goods arbitrage mainly, unilateral purchase price to follow up, the basis is slightly stronger. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2315-2320, basis 09: 90: 5, basis: 2280-2295, basis: 09: 70, transaction: 2260-2280, basis: 09: 45, margin: 52: 6: 2245-2265, basis: 09: 30: 35, 07: 40 : 2240-2265, the basis difference is 0.9-30cm 35, 07-40.
|
Area |
2023/5/15 |
2023/5/12 |
Rise and fall |
|
The whole country |
2238.14 |
2258.82 |
-19.93 |
|
Northwest |
2080-2240 |
2080-2290 |
0/-50 |
|
North China |
2180-2300 |
2180-2300 |
0/0 |
|
East China |
2280-2390 |
2290-2400 |
-10/-10 |
|
South China |
2310-2430 |
2350-2440 |
-40/-10 |
|
Southwest |
2260-2400 |
2260-2400 |
0/0 |
|
Northeast China |
2450-2600 |
2450-2600 |
0/0 |
|
Shandong |
2270-2340 |
2300-2340 |
-30/0 |
|
Central China |
2205-2470 |
2210-2570 |
-5/-100 |
Future forecast: the recent raw material coal is mainly weak, although the methanol production cost has been reduced, most enterprises are still at a loss, some equipment maintenance in some areas is negative, and the supply margin has been improved. however, the overall supply in the field is still in a relatively high position, coupled with the strong wait-and-see mood of downstream terminal enterprises, poor procurement willingness, low demand, multiple negative factors, the trading atmosphere of the Chinese market is weak. In the port market, the futures market is low and volatile, the basis is stable, the spot buying is rigid, and the market trading atmosphere is general. At present, the supply and demand side of the methanol market has not been significantly improved, the supply has stabilized, the demand is weak and there is no expectation of recovery for the time being, most operators in the market are still cautious, the spot price of methanol is weak in the short term, and may continue to be weak in the medium and long term. in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the prices of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.
