PVC Market: Price Analysis(June 25)

PVC futures analysis: On June 25, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and it has been consolidating at a low level. In the morning, the futures price began to rise slightly on the basis of the night trading, and the futures price closed at the highest level of the day in the late afternoon.

V2509 contract opening price: 4836, highest price: 4872, lowest price: 4832, price difference 40, reduced position 12242 lots, position: 922719 lots, settlement price: 4850, yesterday's settlement: 4942, up 8, daily trading volume: 729041 lots, deposited funds: 3.146 billion, capital outflow: 24.07 million.

List of comprehensive prices in various regions: yuan/ton

PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market show regional differences, and some areas of the spot market have slightly increased. From the comparison of valuations: the high-end price in North China rose by 20 yuan/ton, the East China region was stable, the South China region was stable, the Northeast region was stable, the Central China region rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the Southwest region rose by 20-30 yuan/ton.

The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers mostly remained stable, and there was no obvious price increase. During the Wednesday period, enterprises mainly waited and watched, but the quotations actively digested the factory inventory. 

The futures market price rose from the low-end price, driving the spot market quotation mentality to recover. Merchants in some regions tentatively raised their quotations slightly. The spot price and the fixed price coexisted, but the basis showed some differentiation.

The basis quotations in East China were 09 contracts (50-150-170), 09 contracts in South China (0-20-50), 09 contracts in the North (360-400-420-450), and some sources in the Southwest were 09 contracts (410-460-530). Compared with yesterday, the spot market transaction weakened and was not as active as the low price.

PVC market forecast:

Futures: After yesterday's sharp decline, the price of PVC2509 contract rose slightly today, and the 4800-line support was effective. However, the total transaction volume today was nearly 729,000 lots, and the activity declined. From the perspective of the market transaction, 23.4 long openings were compared with 21.0% short openings, and 23.2% short closings were compared with 24.8% long closings.

The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) are still narrowing, and the futures price is running around the middle track and presents a positive column. 

The operation of the futures price is more inclined to repair after a sharp drop, but when the low position is effective, from the current time point of view, the lower range is basically fixed. It is expected that the futures price may return to the high range adjustment in the short term, and observe the fluctuation adjustment in the range of 4820-4930.

Spot: In the plastic sector, PVC is relatively resistant to declines. Although it did not perform well in the upward process, the corresponding decline of PVC in the commodity decline market is smaller than that of polyolefin products. The adjustment range of PVC spot prices is narrowing, and is not as wide as that of futures prices. On the one hand, the spot market is relatively weak and insensitive to price traction.

The pattern of small orders and low-level orders relatively restricts the transaction frequency of the spot market and the delivery rhythm of middlemen. After the price runs to the low range, the futures and spot markets are slightly separated. The current PVC ex-factory price is still at a low level, and the supply circulation in the spot market is still not new. Overall, in the short term, the trend of the PVC spot market is still difficult to get rid of the narrow adjustment mode.

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