Natural Rubber Daily: High Pressure, Lack of Drivers, When Will the Breakout Come?

Index

On September 18, the STR20 price index in the Qingdao natural rubber market was 2,395 USD/ton, down 10 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market

Spot Market

Supply Side

Overseas: Rain disruptions continued in southern Thailand, with latex procurement prices remaining firm. In northeastern Thailand, rainfall decreased month-over-month, and processing plants began to lower purchase prices for cup lump.

Vietnam: Weather conditions in production areas improved, tapping operations gradually resumed, and overall output returned to normal levels.

Domestic: In Yunnan production areas, weather was normal, tapping operations proceeded normally, and raw material supply continued to gradually increase, with some low-priced supply still available.

In Hainan production areas, rain disruptions eased somewhat, tapping operations gradually resumed, and raw material supply gradually increased.

Demand Side

According to reports, affected by high raw material prices, some enterprises limited production of economy-grade products, while others temporarily stopped accepting orders, strictly controlling production and sales to reduce losses. Recently, enterprises have been conducting early maintenance one after another, mainly continuing to ship previous orders. Under the production limitation factor, most enterprises experienced shortages of mainstream products.

Futures and Spot Price Overview

Market Outlook

Currently, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the natural rubber market, and the market lacks a clear direction. On the support side, periodic rainfall disruptions continue in both domestic and overseas production areas, the pace of raw material release is limited, the raw material side still provides some support, and the cost side has not shown significant loosening. On the pressure side, the situation is more pronounced. On the demand side, downstream tire enterprises have a strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, the stocking pace has slowed, and procurement demand has weakened. On the macro level, interest rate hike expectations continue to suppress market risk appetite, and the previous high pressure on natural rubber above is significant. Overall, the short-term market lacks new drivers, with limited upside momentum, but with cost support, the downside space is also limited. Natural rubber is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation pattern.

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