As of September 24, China's float glass price index hit a two-year low, down 832.3 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, according to Bodo. Under the background of supply exceeding demand, the price of float glass in China continues to decline, the loss is obviously aggravated, and the profitability of glass manufacturers is deteriorating.LowerExpected cold repair of production lineThenIncrease. However, before the National Day, a series of macro-favorable policies promoted the procurement efforts in the middle and lower reaches, and there was a marginal improvement on the demand side. During the National Day holiday, the market performance exceeded expectations, market sentiment was high, and spot prices rose all the way from before the holiday toOctober eighthCash traders and traders actively replenish the stock, and the downstream also follow up one after another, showing an abnormal phenomenon of destocking during the National Day. During the festive periodFloat glassIncreased market sensitivity, improved industry production and sales pushed up prices, and the market bottomed out and reboundedThe float glass price index reached 1175.36 yuan / ton, up 76.45 yuan / ton, or 6.96%, from Sept. 30.
As can be seen from the chart below, the inventory of float glass enterprises has been maintained at more than 70 million weight boxes since August 31, and reached 74.79 million weight boxes on September 21, an increase of 44.32% over the same period last year and the highest level in the same period in nearly two years. However, with the improvement of downstream procurement enthusiasm, most manufacturers increased their shipping efforts, the industry inventory by the end of the month from an increase to a decline, a month-on-month reduction of 1.911 million weight boxes, inventory removal efforts are more obvious. During the National Day holiday, manufacturers continued the trend of going to the warehouse, breaking the rule of increasing inventory on holidays in previous years.. ButAlthough the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprisesMonth-on-month comparisonDrop, butStill at a high level compared with the same period last yearThe overall inventory pressure is still large.
On the whole, the cold repair of production lines on the supply side continues to increase. In September, a total of 9 production lines were cold repaired, 6 production lines were transferred to production, two production lines were cold repaired in early October, and one production line was ignited. According to Bodo data, the market operating rate has continued to decline since August, and by the end of September, the daily melting volume of float glass had dropped to 162700 tons, less than at the beginning of the month.6160However, due to the rigidity of supply, the overall output is still high.Wander aboutIn the follow-up, there are still expectations of cold repair and ignition of the production line, and the problem of overcapacity still exists. From the demand side point of view, the recent rebound in market sentiment, terminal real estate sales have improved, downstream of glass procurement enthusiasm increased, deep processing orders showed marginal improvement. During the National Day holiday, the production and sales of glass in many places continuously exceeded 100, and spot prices continued to rise, and speculation and replenishment demand boosted the spot market.
However, with the completion of the downstream stock after the festival, the market transaction has slowed down, and the glass manufacturersWill gradually return to the accumulated library.At the stage, we should not be overly optimistic about the follow-up trend of glass prices.The float glass market will show a trend of being strong first and then weak.Short-term domestic demand pays attention to the effect of macro policies on the stabilization of the downstream real estate market, as well as the persistence of its positive feedback on market demand. In the long run, a full recovery in real estate will take time.DayThe expected actual demand is weak, which may lead to further clearance of production capacityIn the later stage, we should pay attention to the implementation of the market cold repair plan, and under the background of long-term oversupply and weak demand, the haze in the market has not gone away, and the price of glassCompared toDifficultForm a reverse drive.
