In 2023, China's total fuel ethanol production capacity will be 7.2 million tons/year (including overlapping food production capacity). In the first half of the year, China's fuel ethanol production was driven by profits. In the first half of the year, large factories were more motivated to produce fuels. From January to June, the total output was 2 million tons. In April, fuel companies had more equipment outages and low output. Heilongjiang Hongzhan started rotating inspections at the Jixian factory in April. The two lines were suspended for a total of 21 days. Jilin fuel was shut down for about a month. SDIC Jidong started shutting down in early April and has not produced any production yet. SDIC Tieling is producing normally, and Hailun's downtime in April lasted for 1 month and 12 days. Output will decline in the second half of the year. Especially since October, companies have begun to switch to production for food, and the overall output has declined. The total output from July to October was 946,400 tons, and the total fuel ethanol output from January to October was 2.9464 million tons.
From January to October 2023, the downstream consumption of fuel ethanol will reach about 2.8 million tons, all of which is ethanol gasoline consumption, divided into main consumption and local refinery consumption. The sales areas include the three northeastern provinces, Tianjin, parts of Hebei, parts of Shandong, parts of Henan, parts of Anhui, parts of Jiangsu, parts of Hubei, and parts of Guangxi. Incomplete statistics indicate that the average monthly consumption of the main business is around 280,000 to 300,000 tons. However, China's downstream consumption has dropped significantly after October, and the average monthly consumption of local refineries is expected to be around 40,000 to 60,000 tons.
In 2023, China's fuel ethanol prices will fluctuate and rise. Travel will increase in the post-epidemic era, downstream consumption will increase significantly compared with the epidemic period. Enterprises 'enthusiasm in producing fuel has also increased simultaneously. Fuel prices will continue to rise due to increased demand. In September, fuel ethanol prices will be due to downstream double stores. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement will be high. The company's quotation will rise to 7050 yuan/ton leaving the factory. After the double stores, downstream demand will decline, and cost corn prices will weaken. The price of fuel ethanol has dropped significantly. As of November, the lowest price in Heilongjiang has reached 6100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The inventory of some enterprises has increased. Snowfall weather has affected logistics shipments. Enterprises 'inventories have increased. Logistics prices have continued to rise. Enterprises' ex-factory prices have allowed logistics to benefit, and prices have fallen to low levels. Recently, corn prices have fallen to low levels, and corn prices have been reluctant to sell at low prices. Corn prices have begun to rebound. ddgs have rebounded after low levels, and then weakened slightly. The production of fuel ethanol production companies basically fluctuates around the profit and loss level, and some of them have begun to lose money. The shipment situation did not improve after the deep decline. As of press time, corporate quotations began to push up, stimulating some signings. At the end of the month, we are waiting for the new pricing of the two oil companies.
In the short term, companies have a high mentality of pushing fuel ethanol prices and have the possibility of continuing to push them up. However, at present, downstream consumption is limited, and some factories have inventories. There will be new prices for the two oils in the short term. The market predicts that there is a possibility of a decline; large coal-based ethanol manufacturers are expected to increase their short-term output, and corporate inventories are not high. However, if the price of fermented ethanol is pushed up and the price will be firm under the influence of logistics restrictions. Freight rates continue to remain high or rise due to the small number of vehicles, food and fuel shipments, and snowy weather.
