Futures trend: As this year's star product, caustic soda finally began to be officially listed and traded on September 15 this year. Since the listing of the SH2405 contract, the overall operation of the market has been relatively active, and the increase in positions has been relatively obvious. As of now, caustic soda futures have been on the market for 10 days, and the overall futures price has shown an inverted "N" trend of down-up-down. Looking at the details, the futures price on the first day of opening continued to dive downward to the lowest point of 2790. The overall downward trend was relatively obvious. The transaction situation on the market was: 23% more open and 23.4% less open; 20.3% more flat and 20.2%. Subsequently, the second-day futures price experienced a narrow range of fluctuations throughout the day, and the late futures price rose rapidly. The transaction situation of the day: 19.7% more open and 18.9% less open; 20.6% more flat and 20.9%. On the third day, futures prices showed a sharp upward trend, and even hit the daily limit. The market increased positions by 13594 lots significantly. The increased positions were relatively obvious. The transaction situation: 22% more open and 20.4% less open; 21.9% more open; 21.9% more flat. 21.4%. On the fourth day, the SH2405 contract continued to rise, reaching its highest point since its listing. It continued to significantly increase its position by 13904 lots, with a daily trading volume of 598941, making it relatively active. Since the second day of listing, there have been three consecutive positive columns on the market, setting a new high of 3106 since listing. Finally, it fell slightly and then fluctuated at a high level. Since the seventh day of listing, there have been four consecutive negative columns, and the futures price has been falling all the way., hitting a low of 2797, falling below the previous low of 2790. As of the close before the National Day holiday, the number of positions held in SH2405 contracts was 44124.
Analysis of the price difference between caustic soda:
As we all know, caustic soda is a hazardous chemical and has certain requirements for storage and transportation. Common caustic soda models on the market include 32% ionic membrane alkali, 50% ionic membrane alkali, 98.5% flake alkali, and 99% flake alkali. Judging from the product situation, the transportation journey of liquid caustic soda is short and the transportation journey of sheet caustic soda is relatively long. There are certain differences between liquid caustic soda and solid caustic soda in terms of transportation costs, trade flow and price. Judging from the specifications of caustic soda, there are also certain price differences in various specifications and models of caustic soda. From the regional perspective, the pattern of supply and demand in each region and the production cost of caustic soda are also different, and the regional price difference of caustic soda is also revealed.
As the main caustic soda producing area, Shandong is also a concentrated consumption area, and is the benchmark delivery place for caustic soda futures. Price changes have a significant impact on other regions. Taking the price difference between regions as an example, if the price of caustic soda in Shandong is higher than that in other regions-the outflow of goods from this region will decrease-and the local supply will increase-it will suppress the price, and on the contrary, it may support the price. Judging from the price difference between specifications, high-concentration alkali is prepared by evaporation and concentration of low-concentration alkali. Therefore, the price of low-concentration alkali has a certain guiding effect on the price of high-concentration alkali, and liquid alkali has a certain guiding effect on solid alkali. Moreover, the transportation distance of liquid alkali mentioned above is shorter and the transportation distance of solid alkali is longer. Downstream companies will also choose to use liquid alkali and solid alkali according to specific circumstances.
