On November 5, the methanol market price index was 2,057.38, an increase of 9.24 from yesterday and an increase of 0.45% month-on-month.
External disk dynamics:
Methanol closing on November 4:
China CFR294 -297 USD/ton, flat;
US FOB 118-119 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 345-346 US $/ton, flat;
European FOB 402-403 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton.
Today's price summary:
East China: Taicang: 2480-2485 (25), Zhejiang: 2520-2540 (10), Anhui: 2400-2410 (0),
South China: Guangdong: 2460-2470 (15), Fujian: 2480-2530 (10)
Shandong: South Shandong: 2300-2310 (0), North Shandong: 2250-2260 (0), Linyi: 2330-2350 (0)
North China: Shanxi: 2085-2180 (15), Hebei: 2160-2220 (0)
Central China: Henan: 2210-2235 (20), Two Lakes: 2300-2460 (-20)
Northwest: Guanzhong: 2080-2130 (30), northern Shaanxi: 1965-1970 (10), northern Inner Mongolia: 1960-2000 (20), southern Inner Mongolia: 1950 (0), Xinjiang: 1700-1800 (0)
Southwest: Yungui: 2150-2360 (-50), Sichuan and Chongqing: 2200-2480 (-20)
Spot market analysis：
Today, the price of methanol in the market increased within a narrow range, and the futures market fluctuated strongly, which boosted the mentality of market operators to a certain extent. The prices of manufacturers in some regions of China pushed up, and corporate bidding transactions were smooth. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been adjusted within a narrow range. Today's quotation for the northern line is around 1,960 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the southern line is 1950 yuan/ton. The transaction atmosphere of some bidding companies in the venue today was good. Among them, Rongxin auctioned 8000 tons of methanol today, with the starting price of 1950 yuan/ton, and all transactions were completed at 1960 yuan/ton; Yulin Yankuang auctioned 8000 tons of methanol today, with the starting price of 1950 yuan/ton, and finally all transactions were completed at 1,965 - 1,970 yuan/ton; Shaanxi Runzhong's quotation was raised three times this week, and it is currently quoted as a factory withdrawal of 2110 yuan/ton. The market price fluctuations in Shandong, the main consumer area, are limited, ranging from 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,250 - 2,260 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. With the lifting of environmental warnings in various places in the region, downstream demand has improved slightly, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to replenish goods has improved slightly. The market quotations in North China were sorted out at a high level. Today, the price in Hebei was 2,160 - 2,220 yuan/ton. The futures market trend was firm, which boosted the mentality of the industry to a certain extent. The shipment situation of manufacturers in the region was better; the price in Shanxi was 2,085 - 2,180 yuan/ton, with a low-end increase of 15 yuan/ton. The market trend of the main methanol futures market was boosted. The purchasing sentiment of the industry was significantly improved. Most of the on-site auctions were at a premium. Methanol manufacturers shipped smoothly and most of them maintained a firm price mentality.
Port Market:Today, methanol futures rose slightly and then fluctuated. Paper goods were shipped unilaterally on rallies, and transactions were sold at suitable prices within the month. The basis weakened and the price difference between replacements widened slightly. The deal was okay. Transaction price at Taicang Main Port: 11:2480-2485, basis 01-15/-10; 11:2490-2500, basis 01-3/+0; 11:2500-2515, basis 01+13/+16; 12:2535-2540, basis 01+41/+42.
Market outlook forecast:Recently, the futures price of the main methanol contract has been strongly volatile, which has boosted the spot market. Most companies in China have shipped relatively smoothly. As supply pressure decreases, many manufacturers in the region have a certain sentiment of supporting prices. However, considering the current poor profitability of the downstream industry and the general recovery of terminal demand, there is relatively limited room for manufacturers to continue to push up, and short-term transactions may still remain in demand. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price range will mainly fluctuate, and it is not ruled out that there will still be a slight increase in quotations in some regions. However, in the later period, we need to pay attention to the impact of the announcement of the US election results on the macro level, as well as crude oil and coal prices, on-site equipment Operation situation and follow-up status of downstream demand.
