Analysis of PVC futures: On November 4, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5430, the highest price: 5482, the lowest price: 5405, the position: 847340, the settlement price: 5446, yesterday's settlement: 5451, down 5, daily trading volume: 1016047 lots, deposited funds: 3.249 billion, and capital outflow: 532.6 billion.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market remain weak, and spot prices are flexibly adjusted in various regions. Comparison of valuations: North China is stable, East China is down by 10 yuan/ton, South China is down by 20-30 yuan/ton, Northeast China is down by 30 yuan/ton, Central China is stable, and Southwest China is stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises have stabilized at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, stable quotations have been temporarily maintained, and no obvious adjustment trend has been seen, but there are not many contract inquiries for the same generation on Monday. Futures continued to operate within a narrow range, but the atmosphere in the spot market was slightly weak in the morning. There was a certain margin of profit for traders in real orders. In the afternoon, offers narrowed, and the basis was slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis for offer in East China was 01 contract-(150-200), South China 01 contract-(0-90), Northern China 01 contract-(400-450), and Southwest China 01 contract-(630). Although in comparison, traders 'one-price offers have not changed much from last Friday, it is difficult to close transactions at high prices. There is room for negotiation on actual orders, and there is some urgent demand for low-price sources in the market.
From a futures perspective: After the opening price of the PVC2501 contract rose slightly at the opening of night trading, it began to weaken, with an intraday low of 5404. Prices rose slightly in early trading and later periods, rose slightly in late morning, and concentrated in a narrow range at relatively high levels in the afternoon. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5404 to 5482, with a spread of 78. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 23428 lots. As of now, 847340 lots have been held. The 2505 contract has closed at 5795, with 135468 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The operation of the futures price of the PVC2501 contract continues to revolve around the middle track of the Bollinger Band. Compared with the fluctuation range of the futures price last Friday, there is little change. The futures price continues to move sideways on the middle track. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, 2) have narrowed significantly, with the DK line at the daily level and the MACD line crossing. Judging the current future trend from the current trend, the status of the mid-track horizontal market can rise or fall, so it has the problem of uncertain direction. On Monday, there was a trend of reducing positions throughout the day, with transactions showing a high 25.9% flat compared with a short 24.6%. Overall, in the short term, in the absence of policy and fundamental variables, futures prices will continue to be dominated by narrow and sideways movements, observing changes in the range of 5380-5550.
In terms of spot: First of all, judging from the overall commodity trend, at the close of noon, China's main futures contracts were mixed. Shanghai tin, eggs, and coke rose by more than 2%, manganese silicon, international copper, coking coal, and palm oil rose by more than 1%. In terms of decline, caustic soda fell by more than 4%, and the European freight line for container shipments fell by more than 2%. Among chlor-alkali products, caustic soda fell on the list, while PVC performed relatively calmly. At the beginning of the week, spot market transactions were concentrated in the low range, downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and overall transactions were weak. Moreover, there is currently insufficient stimulus from fundamentals, the supply and demand level remains at the early stage, and the price of calcium carbide at the cost point has also remained stable in the near future. Therefore, neither policy nor fundamentals can show direction. This is also the main factor behind the relatively anxious recent trends of the two markets. In the short term, the spot market will continue to adjust mainly slightly, focusing on future policy expectations and external factors.
