Analysis of PVC futures: On November 1, the opening price of the V2501 contract: 5476, the highest price: 5487, the lowest price: 5413, the position: 870768, the settlement price: 5451, yesterday's settlement: 5474, down 23, the daily trading volume: 1013850 lots, the deposited capital: 3.302 billion, and the capital inflow: 104 million.
Comprehensive price list by region: RMB/ton
PVC spot market: Mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market declined slightly, especially in the afternoon. Comparison of valuation: North China fell by 10 yuan/ton, East China fell by 20 yuan/ton, South China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 20 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 10 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 50 yuan/ton. Most upstream PVC production companies are holding firm and wait-and-see, and there has been no significant price adjustment. There are not many contracts signed on Friday. Futures continued to consolidate sideways and weakened slightly at the end of the session. Real orders in the spot market yielded profits, and one-stop offers fell slightly. After the futures price went down, the price advantage was relatively obvious, and the basis was slightly adjusted. Among them, the basis offer in East China was 01 contract-(160-200), South China 01 contract-(0-90), Northern China 01 contract-(400-450), and Southwest China's partial source of goods was 01 contract-(630). Whether it is a one-stop price or a one-stop price, transactions are mainly based on demand, real orders have room for negotiation, and high prices are relatively difficult to close. Transactions are concentrated in the low range. The prices of some urgent supply sources are low, and the overall transaction is weak.
From a futures perspective: The PVC2501 contract opened high and low at night, and the futures price weakened slightly downward, but the decline was not large. In early trading, the range was narrowed based on the late night trading, and the range of fluctuations narrowed. It fell slightly again in late afternoon trading. The 2501 contract fluctuates throughout the day from 5413 to 5487, with a spread of 74.01 contract adding 36969 lots. As of now, 870768 lots have been held. The 2505 contract closed at 5738, with 136452 lots held.
PVC market outlook forecast:
Futures: The price of the PVC2501 contract continued to move sideways in a narrow range around the middle rail. The price weakened late on Friday afternoon, and the market increased significantly in the Friday session. In terms of transactions, the opening was 25.8% short compared with the opening was 24.2%. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bollinger Band (13, 13, and 2) have narrowed, and the daily-level DK line and MACD line have crossed. Judging from the large number of positions currently entering the market during the sideways trading process, it is unclear whether the market is long or short, and there are certain differences in views on the market. At the close of noon, China's main futures contracts were mixed. The overall commodity is also waiting for the direction. In the short term, the futures price may continue to move around the middle track, observing the performance in the range of 5380-5500.
In terms of spot: Looking at the week, the overall spot market price weakened slightly. The temporary increase that occurred during the meeting on Friday and Monday did not last. After a gradual review, the price correction in the two markets will repair this expectation. The current fluctuations in futures prices are relatively sensitive to economic policies and news expectations. Although they cannot test the actual implementation, they are basically respected first and adjusted later. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices in the two markets during the week are not due to fundamental factors. At present, the supply and demand level and cost ports are mostly stable, and no obvious guiding factors have emerged. The overall trend of China's commodities is also slightly anxious, and the cultural commodities index is also dominated by narrow and sideways movements. Therefore, due to the lack of sufficient traction in the PVC spot market in China, the spot price of PVC will continue to be slightly consolidated in the short term.
