August 20th Macroeconomic Index: China's Industrial Sales Revenue Grows 6%, New All-Cargo Route Opens from Urumqi to UK
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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. Tax data show that China's economy has made steady progress in July
2. The first all-cargo route from Urumqi, China to southwest England in the United Kingdom was opened
3. CICC: The current market has more characteristics of the bottoming building period
4. The bond market "stepped on the brakes", and the public offering adjusted the bond-based investment strategy
5. Chaos occurred in the field of loan assistance. Many banks have denied cooperating with loan intermediaries
International News
1. The Kremlin: Russia is willing to make every effort to promote the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia
2. Sudan and Russia discussed the establishment of a bilateral local currency settlement mechanism
3. Experts: The safety of the Kursk nuclear power plant has been strengthened
4. The number of monkeypox cases in Africa has exceeded that of last year, and the monkeypox epidemic has spread to Europe and Asia
5. Zambia is considering an urgent increase in electricity prices
Domestic News
1. Tax data show that China's economy has made steady progress in July
According to data released by the State Administration of Taxation today, in July, with the gradual release of various macro policy effects, the sales revenue of market entities recovered steadily, and many areas showed positive highlights. According to the VAT invoice data of the State Administration of Taxation, in July, China's industrial economy recovered steadily, and the sales revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 6% year-on-year, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the growth rate in the second quarter. The growth of new quality productivity accelerated, and the sales revenue of high-tech industries increased by 13.3% year-on-year. The sales revenue of strategic emerging industries such as electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, railway, shipbuilding and aviation equipment manufacturing, and new energy vehicle manufacturing all maintained double-digit growth.
2. The first all-cargo route from Urumqi, China to southwest England in the United Kingdom was opened
On August 18, United Kingdom European Cargo Airlines flight SE900 from Bournemouth, United Kingdom to Urumqi arrived at Urumqi Diwopu International Airport, marking the official opening of the first all-cargo route from Urumqi to southwest England of the United Kingdom. The opening of this route has further expanded the international freight channel of Urumqi, and opened up a new channel for the accelerated export of domestic goods and the import of foreign high-quality goods.
3. CICC: The current market has more characteristics of the bottoming building period
CICC's latest research report believes that the current A-share market trading sentiment has cooled down sufficiently, which may have reflected the market's overly pessimistic expectations, and after the market has continued to shrink significantly, long and short funds are relatively cautious. Looking ahead, with China's steady growth policy still expected to increase, the current capital market policy dividends under the continuous improvement of the system, investor confidence is expected to be boosted again, and the stabilization of the external market will also help ease the risk appetite of domestic investors. At present, A-shares have been adjusted to a historically low level, and the dividend yield of CSI 300 is more than 1 percentage point higher than that of the 10-year treasury bond rate, which means that the valuation level of this position in the market has become more attractive for investment. Combined with the recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, and pay attention to the follow-up domestic monetary policy easing space.
4. The bond market "stepped on the brakes", and the public offering adjusted the bond-based investment strategy
Since August, under the frequent "control" of supervision, the bond market has been volatile and adjusted, and the drawdown of bond funds has also been more obvious. Wind data shows that as of August 16, although the average return of the bond base during the year was still positive, the net value of more than 3,000 bond bases (only the main code is counted) has retreated in the past two weeks, accounting for 82%. Among them, more than eighty percent of the net value of medium and long-term pure bonds fell, with an average yield of -0.13%; Nearly sixty percent of short-term bond funds have retreated in the past two weeks, with an average yield of -0.03%; The index bond base has fallen by 0.17% on average over the past two weeks. Industry insiders said that after the short-term adjustment of the bond market, the investment value is still worth paying attention to. It is necessary to actively pay attention to regulatory policies and market dynamics, and ensure the stable operation of bond-based products by adjusting investment strategies and doing a good job in duration management.
5. Chaos occurred in the field of loan assistance. Many banks have denied cooperating with loan intermediaries
In recent years, although the trend of stricter supervision has continued, loan intermediaries still have "faked" banks, exaggerated marketing, and guided "AB loans". Since August, more than a dozen banks have issued reminders denying cooperation with loan intermediaries and reminding investors to be wary of the risks of illegal loan intermediaries. In addition, local regulators have also continued to carry out rectification activities to point fingers at illegal intermediaries. According to the reporter, since August, more than 10 banks (or bank branches) such as the Henan Branch of the Agricultural Bank of China and the Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank have issued intensive reminders to remind investors to be wary of the risk of illegal loan intermediaries. Based on the content of each release, most banks mentioned two points in their statements: first, they did not entrust any third-party institutions and individuals to carry out marketing and publicity of loan business; Second, no fees of any kind will be charged in the handling of loan business.
International News
1. The Kremlin: Russia is willing to make every effort to promote the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia
The Kremlin issued a statement on Russian President Putin's upcoming visit to Azerbaijan, saying that Russia is ready to continue to provide full assistance for the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The statement said that the key is to sign the peace treaty, promote the process of demarcation of the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and remove obstacles to regional transportation, logistics and economic ties based on the consensus reached by the leaders of the Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia from 2020 to 2022. According to the Kremlin, Putin will pay a state visit to Azerbaijan on August 18-19. During the visit, the two sides will discuss and sign a series of cooperation documents on further developing strategic partnerships and alliances, as well as international and regional hotspot issues.
2. Sudan and Russia discussed the establishment of a bilateral local currency settlement mechanism
On August 17, local time, officials of the Central Bank of Sudan and a delegation of the Central Bank of Russia held talks in Port Sudan, a city in eastern Sudan, focusing on the establishment of a local currency settlement mechanism for bilateral trade. The two sides said the move was aimed at reducing dependence on foreign currencies. The two sides also discussed matters such as opening financial branches in each other's countries to further facilitate bilateral trade. The two sides also held discussions on joint investment in the field of gold and other precious metal mining. According to local media estimates, the annual bilateral trade between Sudan and Russia is about $400 million to $500 million. Sudan has actively sought investment from Russia in recent years.
3. Experts: The safety of the Kursk nuclear power plant has been strengthened
Boris·Marsinkovich, editor-in-chief of the online analytical magazine Geoenergetika Info, said that the physical protection of the Kursk nuclear power plant has been strengthened to ensure the safe operation of the nuclear power plant and the units under construction, and measures have been taken to deal with possible air attacks. General Manager of the Russia Atomic Energy Corporation, Alexei Likhachev· and IAEA Director General Rafael·Grossi had a telephone conversation on 17 July, and Likhachev invited Grossi to visit the Kursk nuclear power plant in the near future and assess the situation at the nuclear power plant. The IAEA press service stated that Grossi expressed his willingness to visit the plant.
4. The number of monkeypox cases in Africa has exceeded that of last year, and the monkeypox epidemic has spread to Europe and Asia
So far this year, the number of suspected or confirmed monkeypox cases reported in Africa has surpassed the number of cases in all of last year. Currently, the monkeypox outbreak has spread from Africa to Europe and Asia. Patients with confirmed monkeypox virus infection have been identified in both Sweden and Pakistan. The World Health Organization has declared the monkeypox outbreak a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern".
5. Zambia is considering an urgent increase in electricity prices
Zambia's energy regulator is considering an application by the state-owned power company to increase electricity prices by up to 156% as an emergency measure to make up for the damage caused by the drought. On August 16, the country's Energy Regulatory Commission said in a statement posted on its website that the price increase would help Zesco Ltd. raise $14 million from retail electricity users. Zambia's electricity shortage has worsened rapidly as El Niño-induced drought has caused about 85% of Zambia's electricity generation to rely on hydroelectric dams to plummet. In Kariba, the largest of the country's totalities, the country will run out of its water distribution by the end of September, Zesco said. The emergency increase in electricity prices could further exacerbate the country's inflation, which already reached 15.4% in July.
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