June 13th Macroeconomic Index: US CPI Shows Cooling Inflation, Oil Prices Rise, and China Launches First China-Europe Railway Express
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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. Hohhot's first China-Europe Railway Express domestic automobile special transport train was launched
2. Xi Jinping: China promotes the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and leaves no country behind
3. Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, investigated the service work of small and medium-sized enterprises in Beijing
4. The central bank: continue to establish and improve macro-prudential policies, and gradually expand the coverage of macro-prudential policies
5. The person in charge of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce interpreted the "Opinions on Expanding Cross-border E-commerce Exports and Promoting the Construction of Overseas Warehouses"
International News
1. The US CPI shows that price pressures have cooled, and oil prices have risen further
2. Traders are 100% pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November
3. U.S. CPI fell and cryptocurrencies soared in the short term
4. The environment ministers of China and the Republic of Korea held the 2024 annual working meeting
5. Cooling inflation is unlikely to change the Fed's cautious stance
Domestic News
1. Hohhot's first China-Europe Railway Express domestic automobile special transport train was launched
On June 12, in the Shaliang Logistics Park of China Railway Hohhot Bureau Group Co., Ltd., located in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, a China-Europe Railway Express loaded with 29 containers and 290 domestic commodity vehicles drove out. This train is the first China-Europe commercial car special transport train in Hohhot, and the cars carried are all locally produced in Inner Mongolia, which will be transported to Moscow, Russia through Alashankou Port in Xinjiang.
2. Xi Jinping: China promotes the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and leaves no country behind
President Xi Jinping delivered a video message at the opening ceremony of the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Xi pointed out that in the next five years, China will provide a donation of US$20 million to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development to help implement the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and leave no country behind. We are ready to work with all parties to keep the future of mankind and the well-being of the people in mind and push the world towards a bright future of peace, security, prosperity and progress. (CCTV News)
3. Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, investigated the service work of small and medium-sized enterprises in Beijing
Jin Zhuanglong, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, investigated the Beijing Small and Medium Sized Public Service Hub Platform and Beijing Jizhi Future Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Base, gained an in-depth understanding of the construction of the public service system for SMEs, and listened to the opinions and suggestions of SMEs. Shan Zhongde, member of the party group and vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, investigated that together. During the visit, Jin Zhuanglong and his entourage exchanged views with Yin Yong, Deputy Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, and Jin Wei, Member of the Standing Committee of the Municipal Party Committee and Vice Mayor, on cultivating specialized, special and new small and medium-sized enterprises, and accelerating the innovation and development of artificial intelligence and intelligent networked automobile industry. Jin Zhuanglong emphasized that strengthening the construction of the public service system for small and medium-sized enterprises is an important basic measure to promote the high-quality development of small and medium-sized enterprises. It is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the creation mode and management mode of public service demonstration platforms and bases for small and medium-sized enterprises, and effectively play a leading role in demonstration and create more high-quality service carriers. (Gongxin Weibao)
4. The central bank: continue to establish and improve macro-prudential policies, and gradually expand the coverage of macro-prudential policies
The Party Branch of the Central Bank's Macroprudential Management Bureau issued an article "Strengthening Macroprudential Management and Improving Systemic Financial Risk Prevention Capabilities", saying that the People's Bank of China will further strengthen macroprudential management. First, we will continue to establish and improve macro-prudential policies and gradually expand the scope of macro-prudential policies. The second is to carry out counter-cyclical macro-prudential management. Strengthen the monitoring of the growth rate of broad credit and macro-prudential management, and promote the steady growth of money and credit. The third is to improve the robustness of key institutions and fields. Focusing on improving the loss absorption capacity and risk response level, we will continue to consolidate additional supervision of systemically important financial institutions. (Official WeChat of the Central Bank)
5. The person in charge of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce interpreted the "Opinions on Expanding Cross-border E-commerce Exports and Promoting the Construction of Overseas Warehouses"
The person in charge of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce interpreted the "Opinions" and said that the following work will be carried out in the near future: first, strengthen industry exchanges and training, hold on-site meetings in cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, and special training on new forms of foreign trade, and invite local competent departments of commerce, relevant pilots and representatives of industry enterprises to participate; The second is to strengthen the connection between supply and demand of cross-border e-commerce enterprises, hold key exhibitions such as the Canton Fair and the Digital Trade Fair, support the improvement of the existing local cross-border e-commerce exhibition level according to the principle of marketization, and promote the further optimization of the functions of overseas smart logistics platforms; The third is to solidly promote the construction of comprehensive pilot zones, guide 165 comprehensive pilot zones to carry out a series of special actions such as the construction of rules and standards, brand cultivation, and high-quality development of overseas warehouses, and actively use cross-border e-commerce to empower the development of local industries; Fourth, we will actively participate in international cooperation, support the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone and the "Silk Road e-commerce" cooperation pilot zone to carry out international exchanges, and continue to improve the level of trade facilitation.
International News
1. The US CPI shows that price pressures have cooled, and oil prices have risen further
Crude oil futures extended gains after the latest US CPI data showed that inflation slowed in May and the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision and economic estimates later on Wednesday. Brent crude and WTI crude oil prices both rose 1.6% to $83.20 and $79.17 per barrel, respectively. U.S. CPI rose 3.3% in May from a year earlier, unchanged month-on-month, indicating that price pressures have eased. Core CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, below expectations of 3.5%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its interest rate decision in the early hours of the next morning, but investors are eagerly awaiting officials' predictions of several rate cuts this year. The prospect of low interest rates is generally positive for the oil market, as lower borrowing costs boost economic growth and demand for oil.
2. Traders are 100% pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November
U. S. CPI data showed that U.S. inflation unexpectedly slowed in May, with the year-on-year increase in U.S. CPI falling to 3.3% from 3.4% in May, and traders repricing the probability of a Fed rate cut in November at 100% and expecting two 25bp rate cuts this year. Treasuries rose after the data, with the two-year yield falling as much as 13 basis points to 4.7%. Swap contracts have been repriced, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by the Fed. Traders also raised the probability of a rate cut in September to 72%. Daniel Mulholland, senior managing director of Crews & Associates, said: "This inflation report shows that the data is very weak. It is now entirely possible that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. ”
3. U.S. CPI fell and cryptocurrencies soared in the short term
Cryptocurrencies soared in the short term, with Bitcoin rising by $1,400 in the short term, and is now at $69,392 per coin, up more than 3%; Ethereum rose nearly $100 in the short term, and is now trading at $3,628 per coin, up 3.7%.
4. The environment ministers of China and the Republic of Korea held the 2024 annual working meeting
The 2024 Annual Working Meeting of the Environment Ministers of China and the Republic of Korea was held via video link. Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Yunqiu and Minister of Environment of the Republic of Korea Han Hejin attended the meeting. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on topics such as air pollution prevention and control, biodiversity conservation, and plastic pollution control. Huang Runqiu introduced China's great achievements in the field of ecological civilization construction and ecological environmental protection, reviewed the good cooperation between China and the ROK in the field of ecological and environmental protection, and expressed his willingness to work with the ROK to implement the spirit of the China-Japan-ROK Leaders' Conference, further deepen and broaden environmental cooperation, and make positive contributions to regional and global sustainable development. Han Hezhen spoke positively of the fruitful results achieved by the two countries in environmental protection cooperation in recent years, affirmed the results of bilateral cooperation in air pollution prevention and control and the "Sunny Sky Plan", and expressed his willingness to continue to strengthen close cooperation with China and jointly address regional and global environmental challenges.
5. Cooling inflation is unlikely to change the Fed's cautious stance
Wednesday's lower-than-expected inflation data was good news for the Fed, but it wasn't enough to convince it to cut interest rates. The question it asked at today's FOMC meeting was whether this cooling would affect some officials to tune up their previously estimated three rate cuts this year to two, rather than one. Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze said that overall, it was a good report, which showed that the anti-inflation process continued. However, this improvement is unlikely to change the Fed's cautious stance.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
