- Chinese brokerages are cautiously optimistic about the fourth-quarter market, emphasizing growth and dividends. The interest rate on existing housing loans is set to decrease, putting pressure on banks' net interest margins. Real estate promotions are increasing, and express delivery revenue has surpassed 1 trillion Yuan ahead of schedule. Internationally, the Fed's November rate cut probability is 70.4%, and Germany has lowered its economic growth forecast.
- China's fund industry has implemented purchase restrictions to prevent arbitrage and protect holder income. Six major banks are preparing to increase capital, and discussions on issuing special treasury bonds to inject capital into these banks have resurfaced. The market remains optimistic about A-shares, with brokerages recommending numerous gold stocks. Internationally, Hurricane 'Milton' has been upgraded to a Category 5, and political tensions persist in the Middle East and Europe.
- Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 target to 6,300 points, citing stable macroeconomic outlook and strong tech sector. Meanwhile, A-share market optimism increases as local governments borrow 6.7 trillion yuan, and Shenzhen's real estate market heats up.
- Henan Governor emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and promoting trade-in and acquisition of existing commercial housing. CATL signs a strategic cooperation agreement with Hainan to develop green energy and new energy storage, aiming to build a carbon-neutral model. Changjiang Securities highlights potential benefits for banking, real estate, and construction sectors from valuation improvement plans. Chinese researchers develop a new solar-powered lithium extraction technology from salt lakes.
- China's assets continued their rally overnight, with the A50 index reaching a one-year high. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged nearly 11%, and the offshore yuan appreciated significantly. US stocks also saw gains, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3,000 points, and small and medium-sized investors expressed confidence in holding shares during the National Day holiday.
- The central bank and regulatory authorities released a policy 'gift package' to boost investor confidence. Morgan Stanley noted that liquidity has been significantly enhanced, potentially leading A-shares to outperform emerging markets. Meanwhile, the US Congress passed a Temporary Appropriations Act to avoid a government shutdown, and severe drought conditions persist in Brazil.
- Panda bond issuance reached a new high of nearly 160 billion yuan, driven by low interest rates and favorable policies. The RMB exchange rate is supported by stable economic fundamentals and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, while domestic policy measures boost market confidence and A-share performance.
- Bond issuance has increased, with the 'panda bond' market expanding rapidly due to low financing costs and favorable regulatory policies. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds approaches 2%, and market views are divided. The catering industry faces challenges of 'increased revenue but no profit,' and support policies are anticipated to stimulate market vitality.
- China's Central Office for the Rule of Law conducts inspections in six provinces, Economic Daily emphasizes quality over quantity in finance, and Wuxi focuses on stabilizing the real estate market. Internationally, Israel plans a ground operation in Lebanon, the Fed's rate cut probabilities are tied, and TSMC and Samsung consider building chip factories in the UAE.
- China's September LPR quotation is expected to drop by about 20bp, influenced by the Fed's interest rate cut. CRRC launched its 1000kW power level oil-electric hybrid locomotive, which is expected to achieve significant fuel savings. Additionally, the 'Insurance + Futures' project of ZCE was fully launched, and over 30 futures companies actively participated.
- China is facing a funding gap of one trillion yuan, leading to calls for another deposit-reserve ratio cut. The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 568.2 billion yuan to maintain liquidity. Experts also suggest further adjustments in mortgage interest rates and transaction taxes to boost the property market.
- The preliminary statistics of visitor arrivals to Hong Kong in August reached nearly 4.5 million, a new monthly high since the full resumption of customs clearance. The People's Bank of China has released a positive signal that there is still room for RRR cuts, indicating potential monetary policy adjustments to support economic development.
- Steel prices are expected to rise in the coming months, potentially narrowing the losses of production enterprises. This comes amid calls for production restrictions and policy support to address overcapacity issues. The A-share market continues to show signs of a potential bottom, with high-level stocks making up for declines.
- The 'Golden September and Silver October' peak season is approaching, but the commodity market shows a downward trend due to weakening macro drivers. Experts suggest steady and solid promotion of RMB internationalization, while civil compensation cases for market manipulation increase, signaling stronger accountability. The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities marks a significant innovation in the securities industry, and the RWA process is expected to broaden cross-border financing channels for mainland enterprises.
- The Shanghai-Kunming Air Corridor officially opened, enhancing flight safety and efficiency. Meanwhile, private equity institutions increased their research activities, focusing on pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and electronics. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a more pessimistic outlook, with most regions experiencing flat or declining economic activity.